Japan and the US Nuclear Umbrella
Masao Tomonaga
What is the situation of people who survived the first and second atomic bombings today, 60 years later? The incidences of cancer for almost all body organs that were exposed to irradiation from the atomic bombs are still increasing. An ever growing number of survivors suffer from the second or sometimes even the third type of cancer. Leukemia, a cancer of blood cells, began to increase as early as 1947, persisted for more than ten years, and then declined to almost background level. However, our recent epidemiological investigation has begun to notice a new trend that a special type of leukemia called myelodysplastic syndromes, which usually occur among the elderly people in general population, is increasing among atomic bomb survivors who were exposed to irradiation in short distance from the hypocenter, or Ground Zero. Thus, once the cells of every organ are exposed to irradiation, the memory of genetic damage, namely DNA damage, continues for the rest of the person’s life.
In 1980, we international physicians gathered in Washington DC and established a federation named “International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War” (IPPNW). Soon after the foundation meeting, we collaborated with physicists to establish the theory of “Nuclear Winter” after a relatively small nuclear war in the northern hemisphere. We launched a campaign to persuade political world leaders to recognize the reality of nuclear war. We showed how the Earth environment and medical facilities would be broken up by nuclear war and that no one could survive in a eternal winter that means no food and no medicine. Even more so as radiation injuries would further shortens the survival time of human beings.
It is true that we, correctly speaking the people of nuclear weapon-possessing countries, are living on the extremely fragile ground of planet Earth without recognizing the real threat of nuclear weapons. Some people, especially political and military leaders, believe that they are safe because of the protective power of the nuclear weapons, i.e. because of “nuclear deterrence.”
Japan was one of the Axis Nations during World War II and defeated by US and allied forces that actually used two nuclear weapons to accelerate Japan’s surrender. The nuclear age and then the Cold War started. We, the Japanese people, have since then already enjoyed life for 59 years without fighting any war. The Japanese Constitution established in 1947 abandoned the right of fighting a war to solve international conflicts. However, we have a military power called the “Self Defense Forces,” the annual budget of which is ranked as the second largest in the world in proportion to the national gross domestic product.
The central doctrine for the national defense policy of Japan, or rather of the consecutive Japanese Governments, denotes that Japan depends on the extended deterrence by US nuclear weapons – that is on the US “Nuclear Umbrella.” South Korea and Taiwan also have a similar umbrella. It has been repeatedly noted by large-scale public opinions polls that more than 75% of the Japanese citizen support this umbrella as a principle of the US-Japan Security Treaty. At the same time the same percentage of people considers that nuclear weapons must ultimately be abolished in the future. But when is the right time to do so?
As seen here, Japan has been in the apparent dilemma that, as a nation with the terrible experience of atomic bombings, we seek the abolition of nuclear weapons but at the same time we think that Japan needs the nuclear umbrella. The only possible solution for this dilemma might be a relaxation of tension in international affairs, especially with North Korea, but also to a certain extend with China.
Northeast Asia is a unique region where the Cold War structure has been held up to this day. The lack of normalization in formal diplomatic relationship between Japan and the People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is obviously affecting this Cold War structure. Many people had been kidnapped by a secret group of the DPRK, as Kim Jong Il himself admitted. This serious violation of the humanitarian law has profoundly affects the general opinion of the Japanese people about the DPRK, causing yet another dilemma, namely whether to “help this country or not to help?” South Korea, as a developed country in this area is strongly continuing to support the DPRK financially. The Japanese economical support to the DPRK, however, is a limited one because of the kidnapping cases.
Why does the DPRK seek nuclear armament? Because of US nuclear policy that does not foreswear First Use? Is it really a threat to the DPRK? Because of the Japanese Defense Policy, which is based on the US nuclear umbrella? Or simply because of the survival desire of Kim Jong Il and his power circle?
The DPRK’s relationship with Japan is highly strained by the history between the two countries after the Russo-Japanese War in 1905-06, that is by the colonization of the Korean Peninsula by the former Empire Japan. Compensation for the burden that Japan forced on the Korean People is the largest political issue between the two countries. In particular Mr. Kim Jong Il and Mr. Koizumi, the Japanese Prime Minister, both seem to desire a normalization of their diplomatic relationship. However, the nuclear arsenal planned by the DPRK is severely affecting the Japan-DPRK negotiations. Several rounds of Six Party Talks have brought no meaningful progress.
Has the DPRK really one, two, or three Hiroshima-sized nuclear bombs as some government officials say? No one knows the truth. Reliable intelligence is generally lacking in Japan, which induces a considerable fear of a sudden missile attack with a conventional or nuclear warhead on Japanese islands. A substrategic or strategic missile, once launched, reaches Japan’s land in less than 15 minutes.
My personal view is as followings: it might be true that the DPRK now has atomic bombs, but they cannot deliver them with aircrafts or missiles. They could invade Japan with special troops as they did several times in the past, but the nuclear weapons they possess would probably be too heavy to bring with them. Therefore, there is no urgent threat from the DPRK. Of course, with respect to the global non-proliferation regime, the DPRK nuclear ambitions are a serious problem that prevents successful negotiations on peace issues between the countries in Northeast Asia. We, the people of this area, must make greatest endeavors to decrease the tension that prevails now.
It seems to me that the missile defense system, which the Japanese Government wants because of the DPRK’s missile and nuclear arsenals, further aggravates the situation. Actually, it causes an arms race in this small region of the world, thus unfortunately mimicking the situation of the Cold War. Such an arms race prevents a normal development of the economic, cultural, and scientific, as well as sports relations in Northeast Asia.
We physicians are now engaged in very active communicating with the Chinese Society of Medicine as well as with the Korean Medical Association. This past September, IPPNW held its World Congress in Beijing, China, where we had intense discussions about how to solve the current tense situation and how to move forward towards a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Northeast Asia. We doctors believe that increasing communication of peoples in this region in many fields of human activities will greatly facilitate the resolution of political problems in the near future.
Scientists refer to facts: we refer to the fact that nuclear weapons are generally illegal as the International Court of Justice proclaimed in 1996 at The Hague. The fact is partly derived from our observation and research on the atomic bomb survivors. I believe that science will ultimately change the world towards peace. It is going to be a long way before it will be achieved. The US nuclear umbrella that was has been benevolently or forcibly installed over the defeated country Japan for more than a half century will be ultimately discarded when we succeed in establishing a new and peaceful Northeast Asia. That makes the nuclear umbrella worthless and even harmful in Northeast Asia. We also need to push our government to make every effort towards realization of a nuclear-free Northeast Asia and to start a new era.
This paper was written for the conference "The Challenge of Hiroshima. Alternatives to Nuclear Weapons, Missiles, Missile Defenses, and Space Weaponization in a Northeast Asian Context" organized by INESAP and the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation on October 8-11, 2004, in Hiroshima, Japan.
