New Nuclear Strategy, New Nuclear Weaponry
France Prepares a Nuclear Future
Dominique Lalanne
In the past, the French “Force de Frappe” (nuclear strike force) was supposed to deter only one enemy: the USSR. This is no longer the case and a new strategy has emerged from some official reports. Now, the use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield cannot be excluded. Participation in regional conflicts is being prepared, even when no “vital” interests are involved. For these reasons, France will update its complete nuclear arsenal within 15 years and is preparing a long term plan up to the year 2040.
The New Strategy
The new strategy has been clearly explained by the President of France, Jacques Chirac, in an official speech to the famous Institute for High Studies for National Defence (IHEDN) on June 8, 2001: “The choice is no longer between the complete annihilation of a country and no action. The damage to which a potential aggressor exposes itself will be primarily directed at its power, political, economic, and military centers.”
A more precise description of this new strategy of progressive strikes is contained in a report of the Senate Foreign Affairs Commission for the fiscal year 2003 budget: According to Senate Representative Jean Faure, “In this respect, we must adapt deterrence to a regional conflict where our survival is not at stake. Our concept can no longer be described as ‘anti-city deterrence,’ it has evolved to a deterrence that can be ‘adapted’ to a variety of threats. This new approach for French deterrence means we must also choose new deterrence tools for the future. Our nuclear forces must be able to credibly hold at risk a much larger range of targets in order to ensure deterrence under all circumstances. Selective yields and improved penetration of the nuclear warheads and a larger variety, enhanced range, and higher precision of the carrier systems are among the new parameters we need to consider when modernising our nuclear arsenal over the next 15 years.”
The Situation in 2003
In 2003, the French nuclear arsenal was clearly more powerful than that of the British or even the Chinese. With 350 nuclear warheads, two nuclear submarines constantly patrolling the oceans, nearly 80 aircraft bombers, and one aircraft carrier, French politicians claim that French deterrence is currently at the “minimum level.” When comparing with China, which owns more nuclear warheads (400), the basing and range of missiles must also be considered. China has 120 ground-based missiles, 120 tactical missiles, and 130 airlaunched missiles, but only one submarine with 12 missiles. In contrast, France has 80% of its missiles in two submarines at sea. The French level of deterrence is therefore much higher.
More precisely, the current Force Océanique Stratégique (FOS, strategic sea force) has four submarines, the so-called SNLE (sousmarin nucléaire lance engin), with two permanently at sea, equipped with 16 trategic missiles each, each missile with six hundred kiloton warheads TN75. Two of these submarines are of the totally new type (“new generation”) SNLE-NG.
The M45 missiles and the TN75 nuclear warheads are also rather new and were introduced in 1997. Only one submarine is equipped with older M4 missiles, but these are to be replaced by the end of 2004.
The air-based component of the Force de Frappe has two types of aircraft: the Mirage 2000N with a range of 3,000 km (57 jets) and the Super-Etendard with a range of up to 1,500 km (19 jets). The last Mirage 2000N was delivered in 1993, but the technological concept is from the 1980s. The Super-Etendard dates back to the 1970s. It is equipped with ASMP missiles (Air-Sol-Moyenne Portée) with the launch altitude determining the range (80–250 km). Since 1987, the ASMP has been equipped with the TN81 300 kiloton nuclear warhead.
This is the French arsenal at a time when, ironically, a modernization program is being planned up to the year 2015 in order to maintain a “minimum deterrent), according to President Chirac.
New Equipment for the Navy
There are three objectives for the FOS in the 2003-2008 military program:
Firstly, the replacement of two older SNLE submarines (Indomptable) by the new SNLE-NG that have much lower acoustic levels and so a greater invulnerability. An arsenal of four submarines is considered to be the minimum required to guarantee at least two submarines at sea at any one time, to cover the case of “one of them being possibly neutralized,” Representative Jean Faure said in his report. The first SNLE-NG named Le Triomphant was in service in 1997 and the second, Le Téméraire, in December 1999. The two new submarines ordered in 2000 are Le Vigilant (expected at the end of 2004) and Le Terrible (for 2010).
The second objective is to replace the M4 ballistic missile currently in place in the SNLE-type submarine Le Redoutable with the new M45 missile and a new TN75 warhead by the end of 2004. This is the only submarine still retaining the M4 missile as the L’Inflexible, which was due to be in service until 2007, was refurbished in 2001. The two new generation SNLE-NGs were equipped with these weapons as soon as they came into service – as the third will be when it is finished in 2004,
The third objective is to replace, after 2010, the M45 missile with a new one, the M51. This would initially carry the current TN75 nuclear warhead but this would be replaced after 2015 with a new TNO (tête nucléaire océanic) warhead. The M51 missile is to have a longer range (6,000 km instead of 4,000 km) so as to be able to reach Beijing from a North Cape launch. In addition its stealth capability will theoretically be a “technological quantum leap.” The new missile is to be linked to a new “penetration system,” guided by the planned European Galileo network of GPS satellites, to give much improved accuracy over the current inertial system.
It should be noted that there is also a new doctrine for the use of the FOS. During the Cold War, the procedure was to launching all of the missiles in a matter of minutes. This was for two reasons: firstly, the goal of deterrence was for the destruction of a maximum number of cities and secondly, because the launching of one missile would immediately give away the submarine’s position and therefore make it an easy target for Soviet forces. All has changed. There is no more pre-targeting of missiles as this can be decided at sea, and it is proposed that it should be possible to launch only one missile – possibly with only one warhead. The minimum yield of the new TNO warhead, to be available in 2015, is being kept secret but it will have a maximum explosive power of 150 kilotons.
New Equipment for the Air Force
The Air Force is the visible part of deterrence and is characterized by its mobility and ease of use and flexibility. Based on the ground or on an aircraftcarrier and linked to a theater missile defense (TMD) system, it will perform the major role in the new strategy for distant theaters. A second aircraft-carrier for this component is due to be built in partnership with the UK.
The first step towards a TMD system will use the SAMP/T anti-ballistic missiles with a range of 600 km. Four of these are due to be in operation in 2008 and ten in 2012. A study is being conducted for a new MR3 radar to detect the launch origin of incoming missiles.
After 2007 all existing aircraft are due to be replaced by the new Rafale Marine and Rafale Air planes, to be equipped with the new ASMPA missile, carrying the new TNA warhead. The ASMP-A is due to be delivered in 2007. It will have a longer range than current similar missile types and a “trajectory diversification” system which makes it very difficult to intercept. It was especially designed for the Mirage 2000N and so will be fitted to these first, but in 2008 it will also be incorporated into 20 Rafale Air and 20 Rafale Marine aircraft. In 2015, 20 new Rafale Marine planes will be fitted with ASMP-A missiles with a further 20 due to be in service by 2017.
New Research Facilities
Currently, there are three fields of research and development involving the development of new types of nuclear weapons. Two of them, the upgrade of computer systems and the new Airix generator are short- and medium-term projects (10-20 years), while the third one, the Megajoule laser, is to develop new types of pure fusion weapons over the long term (30 to 40 years).
The official justification for these new investments is that they are required to replace actual testing as the Pacific test site is now closed. It has also been suggested that, in order to keep high level scientists in the military sector it is necessary to develop new facility types and an attractive long-term scientific program. This clearly indicates that the ultimate goal is not the elimination of nuclear weapons, as required by article VI of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but the continuing modernization of French nuclear capabilities, in other words “vertical proliferation.”
New Computers
The computer project of the French nuclear weapons complex, known as Tera, saw the delivery of the first new computer system to the CEA (Commissariat à l’énergie atomique) at the end of 2001. It is the first such European center for computing and has been said to be 100 times better than the system available in 1996. Two other facilities are planned to be in operation by 2009, which are predicted to improve performance by an additional factor of 20 and resulting in a capacity of around 100 Teraflops (100 billion operations per second).
The Airix Generator
The Airix generator is being constructed to investigate the pre-ignition phase of a nuclear explosion. In order to develop new warheads it is crucial to understand what happens in the compression phase of the explosion where ignition is to take place. There is no need to create a real nuclear explosion to obtain this information. So called “cold testing” methods – where the fissile material is replaced by a non-fissile one with the same mechanical properties – employ the use of high-speed X-ray radiography to experimentally verify computer simulations.
The Airix generator has been operating at its first stage level since mid-2000 and the facility is due to be completed in 2011.
The Megajoule Laser
The goal of the Megajoule laser is to study the ignition process of the hydrogen fusion reaction (or more precisely of its deuterium and tritium isotopes). This facility will be quite similar to the National Ignition Facility (NIF) currently under construction in California. The Megajoule project is due to start operation with 240 lasers in 2011. A first module of eight lasers, the LIL (ligne d’integration laser) has been in operation since April 2002 in order to verify the expected performance. The final decisions concerning the design of Megajoule are going to be made this year (2004).
A fusion nuclear reaction is quite different from a fission one. The fission nuclear reaction uses the fissile material uranium-235 or plutonium-239 as fuel to produce an explosion relatively easily because it will occur as soon as a single “critical mass” (11 kg for U-235 and 5 kg for Up-239) is achieved. To create this situation, all that is needed is two or more subcritical pieces of the fissile material and a standard chemical explosive to bring them together in an instant. The serious disadvantage with this situation is that the requirement of a “critical mass” makes “small nuclear bombs” impossible. The Hiroshima explosion was equivalent to 13 kilotons of TNT and the smallest plutonium bombs correspond to 1 kiloton – these are the so-called “mini-nukes.”
In the case of nuclear fusion, the release of energy in the form of an explosion occurs when the hydrogen, deuterium, and tritium isotopes are maintained at the right temperature and pressure for a minimum confinement time. This can be achieved, for example in the Megajoule laser, with only milligrams of fuel, in which case the explosive power will be less than 5 kilos of TNT equivalent. The important point here is that there is no minimum level of fuel and therefore explosion. The great difficulty lies in obtaining the physical conditions necessary for ignition – a temperature of at least 10 million degrees is needed. That is why currently the only way to make an H-bomb (with hydrogen isotopes) is to trigger it with an A-bomb (with Pu-239 or U-235) in order to reach the required ignition temperature and pressure.
The challenge to Megajoule is to reach the ignition conditions with a high-powered laser and, perhaps more importantly, to understand how the first spark of energy propagates through the confined fuel mixture. Until this process is understood it may not be possible to build a pure fusion bomb. Results of this research are expected around 2020-2030 and, if successful, could lead to small, fast lasers being used to produce nuclear fusion. Of course, Megajoule is of such a size (a few hundred meters) that it could never be used as a bomb. The program requires that special micro-lasers be developed by 2030-2040 that, if successful could make usable pure fusion bombs possible by 2050.
These pure fusion bombs would be the perfect mini-nuke for the battlefield. Unlike nuclear fission, there is no radioactive pollution as the final product is only helium, but there are many more high-energy neutrons produced than with Pu-239 or U-235 fission. By tuning the output power (which depends on the mass of deuterium-tritium used), the device can be made into a notorious “neutron bomb” which is extremely damaging to life.
Conclusions
It came as a surprise to many that the French attitude to its nuclear weapons changed abruptly after 2000 especially after the many promising disarmament steps that were taken in the 1990s. The French government finally endorsed the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1992 (22 years after its entry into force) and, perhaps more significantly, abandoned its use of the ground-based Hades and the Plateau d’Albion missiles. The Pacific Nuclear Test Site was dismantled, and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was signed. This was followed by the total termination of the production of fissile material and the closure of the Marcoule and Pierrelatte production centers.
Ironically, the change in attitude occurred at a time when the French Government had declared a firm commitment to eliminate its nuclear arsenal. It is clear that the change was strongly influenced by the new US concept of counter-proliferation, rather than non-proliferation. During the Cold War, nuclear weapons were key to maintaining an “equilibrium of terror.” The end of the Cold War signaled a time for “strategizing” a new role for nuclear weapons, which took a decade. The new French policy in fact runs parallel to that of the US. “Modernizing” is the key word, and its goal is preparing the weapons for future battlefields.
