International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation

Bulletin 19 - New Publications

A Maginot Line in the Sky

Edited by David Krieger and Carah Ong

Krieger & Ong - A Maginot Line in the Sky Book review by Gert G. Harigel

There is a saying:
"If you want to make enemies for lifetime, then go to work with a peace research organization: foes will soon show up galore inside and outside this community".

I sincerely hope this will not be the result of my critical review of the highly interesting book. This laudable, hundred plus pages book brings together the views of eighteen contributors of different nationalities and background on the American plan for a Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). This analysis is timely, important and may still influence the decision makers in the United States such as to prevent the unfortunate implementation of the National Missile Defense (NMD) and its repercussion on accelerating the arms race, stretching it right away - or at a later stage - into outer space.

The limitation to a few pages for each of the contributors made their statements compact and punching. The essays make fascinating reading and give rise to deep reflection, be it on a single subject or the whole chain of arguments. There is surprisingly little repetition of arguments and also practically no substantial disagreement, which would have been expected for such a number of contributors and such a complex and controversial topic. Valuable proposals to stop NMD development are presented.

It can not be the task of the referee to discuss the contribution piece by piece. Instead the discussion will point to the strengths, and also to a few aspects that were not treated in sufficient depth or even neglected.

Being a physicist by formation I miss a description of the scientific and engineering parameters of NMD. One editor played down this aspect in the first chapter by saying, "Whether or not the system will work, though, is not the key issue. Even if it worked perfectly, it would be so destabilizing that it would not be desirable to deploy the system". Here, the question is not addressed what comes first, the hen or the egg - the futile concept to develop and implement a technically impossible defense system or the adverse political consequences of a doomed idea.

A description and analysis of NMD from scientists, perhaps one from a weapon laboratory defending the idea, and another one from the opposing NGO community making the case for its unrealistic assumptions and neglect of easily obtainable technical countermeasures, would have been beneficial to improve the book.

Readers from the sociologist or politician camps may not be satisfied with the unexplained statements that the NMD can not at all or not completely work as advertised, thereby leading them to no or an ambiguous conclusion. For instance, who knows that the difference between NMD and Theater Missile Defense (TMD) is blurred - like the one between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons?

A retrospective view of delivery systems for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) during the last two decades would have been helpful. A scientific and economic review of President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) foreshadows traps into which the US government and its allies are falling now again.

There is no new physics involved in NMD, and consequently there is no advanced technology furthered. Only the complexity and size of the task is expected to increase to an unmanageable level. Some Western countries and their defense industries jumped initially on the bandwagon of SDI in anticipation of great scientific and financial gains. However, the attempt failed to make the continued participation in development of SDI attractive for European partners. This should be taken as a lesson for NMD and could have been outlined.

This discussion of some shortcomings is not intended to deter people from reading the extremely valuable book. I highly recommend the essays to a wide readership, in particular to those people responsible for decision-making and involved in arms control. The interconnection between inefficiency, destabilization, creation of insecurity and environmental impact of NMD is presented in a clear and understandable way. A new arms race, initiated by its deployment, may jeopardize the survival of mankind. A scary outlook and more reason for studying these essays!

Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, US$ 14.95 + handling. For more details contact research@napf.org.

Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces

Edited by Pavel Podvig, with contributions from Oleg Bukharin,Timur Kadyshev, Eugene Miasnikov, Pavel Podvig, Igor Sutyagin, Maxim Tarasenko, and Boris Zhelezov

Pavel Podvig - Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces The book Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces is part of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project of the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. It provides comprehensive data about Soviet and Russian strategic weapons, payloads, and delivery systems and on the nuclear complex that supports them. The data are drawn from open, primarily Russian, sources, and all the information is presented chronologically, arranged by individual systems and facilities.

Following an overview of the history of the Soviet strategic forces, the book discusses the structure of the political and military leadership in the Soviet Union and Russia, the structure of the Russian military and military industry, nuclear planning procedures and the structure of the command and control system. It describes the nuclear warhead production complex and the Soviet nuclear weapon development program. It then focuses on the individual services that constitute the so-called strategic triad - land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, the strategic submarine fleet, and strategic aviation. It presents an overview of Soviet strategic defense, including air-defense systems, the Moscow missile defense system, the radar and space-based early warning networks, and the space-surveillance system. The book also includes a description of the Soviet nuclear testing program and on all Soviet nuclear tests and peaceful nuclear explosions. It concludes with a look at the future of strategic nuclear weapons in Russia.

Authors of the book are Russian researchers from the Center for Arms Control Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, the U.S. and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Princeton University.

The MIT Press, 693 pages, 57 illustrations, US$ 45, ISBN 0-262-16202-4

Ballistic Missiles in the Middle East - The Next Challenge

Edited by Reuven Pedatzur

This collection of articles is the result of the international conference, "From MTCR to ZBM" (Zero Ballistic Missiles), held in Israel by The Galilee Center for Strategy and National Security, in October 1997. The articles have been modified since then, and the authors had the chance to review the recent developments in the Middle East, and in the world, in the area of ballistic missile proliferation.

No Israeli is likely to forget the 39 Scuds missiles that rained down on Israel during the Gulf War. Today, ballistic missiles are present throughout the Middle East. At least 10 countries in the region are equipped with ballistic missile. Six of them with non-conventional missiles (chemical and biological, and in the future probably even nuclear). More and more nations, like Iran, Egypt, Syria, and Libya, are turning to independent development and production.

A cautious estimate puts the number of ballistic missiles that will threaten Israel in the year 2010 at between 2,500 and 3,000. The ballistic missile threat becomes an onerous burden on Israel and on other countries in the Middle East, which must accordingly develop appropriate operational responses.

The articles in this book deal with most of the aspects of the influence of ballistic missiles on the Middle East, and on Israel in particular:
- The future proliferation of ballistic missiles in the Middle East,
- The potential directions for developing technologies in this area,
- The possible defensive methods to respond to the ballistic missile threat,
- The Non-conventional Ballistic Threat,
- The obstacles, which may hinder the negotiations process between Israel and its neighbors with regard to the ballistic arena,
- The technical aspects of the ballistic issue.

The principal message emanating from this book is the need of the policymakers in the Middle East to allocate much more attention to the issue of ballistic missile and its influence on the future of the region.

142 pages. To order the book, contact the editor at peda@netvision.net.il.

Nuclear Weapons And International Law In The Post Cold War World

By Charles J. Moxley, Jr., with forewords by Robert S. McNamara, David W. Leebron and Kosta Tsipis

Charles Moxley - Nuclear Weapons & Int. Law In Post Cold War This book by New York attorney and former St. John's law professor Charles Moxley contends that the use of nuclear weapons is per se unlawful based upon rules of international law recognized by the United States and facts beyond reasonable dispute.

His professional experience has centered around litigating complex securities and commercial disputes in federal and state courts throughout the country, in serving as an arbitrator deciding such disputes in matters before the American Arbitration Association, and in teaching litigation related subjects at St. John's University School of Law and New York Law School. He has also been active over the years in lawyers groups in the arms control area.

The book grew out of such interests. It represents his effort to apply tough litigative as opposed to political or philosophical analysis to the issue of the lawfulness of the use of nuclear weapons.

Robert S. McNamara, secretary of defense in the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations, writes in his foreword to the book:

Professor Moxley has given us the best exposition that I have seen of the irrationality of the U.S. policy in this area, the irrationality of the policies of the other nuclear weapons states, and the irrationality of the human race in permitting the potential use of these weapons to continue.

I urge the President and the Congress to investigate the claim Professor Moxley makes that, given all of the risk factors, the use of nuclear weapons is per se unlawful under rules of law long recognized by the United States.

Professor Moxley has done us a great service by inviting us to engage this historic opportunity. Nuclear Weapons and International Law in the Post Cold War World will be an indispensable reference work for all who wish to debate the issue.

Austin & Winfield, 2000, 832 pages, US$ 65, ISBN 1-572-92152-8.

The World Court In Action
Judging Among The Nations

By Howard N. Meyer, with a foreword by Fr. Theodore M. Hesburgh, C.S.C.

Over a century ago, a precursor to the International Court of Justice, usually called the World Court, was created. The United States had an important role in founding the Court and a U.S. citizen - Andrew Carnegie - funded the Peace Palace, the building in which the World Court still convenes. But in 1985, during the second Reagan-Bush Administration, the United States effectively withdrew its support and authority from the Court in response to its ruling on the U.S. use of force in Nicaragua. Since that time, the role of the World Court has grown in importance internationally even though the United States refuses to participate fully. And because the U.S. role has been so attenuated, the full story of the World Court has not been told, especially to U.S. citizens and students whose ignorance of it is a national embarrassment.

Howard N. Meyer - longtime legal authority, activist, and champion of untold or misunderstood histories - traces the World Court all the way back to The Hague Conference of 1899 and shows its development through World War I, the League of Nations, World War II, and the Cold War, all the way up to the contemporary challenges of East Timor and Kosovo. More recently, Meyer distinguishes between the nation-state oriented work of the World Court and the work of the International Criminal Court which was proposed in 1998 to prosecute individual war criminals like Milosevic and others coming out of the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda. As different as they are, the World Court and the ICC have a common problem that this book seeks to address: resistance in Washington to the international rule of law, especially when it comes to authority surrounding the use of force.