International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation

Bulletin 19 - News

Is a Space Weapons Ban Possible?

Matthias Karádi, Götz Neuneck

The Federation of German Scientists (Vereinigung Deutscher Wissenschaftler, VDW) joined with the International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (INESAP), Pugwash Germany and the German Scientists Initiative for Peace for a one-day discussion of the prerequisites and possibilities to ban weapons in space. The workshop was held on November 16, 2001, at the MagnusHaus in Berlin, which is operated by the German Physical Society (DPG).

Workshop participants came from several research institutions and universities in Bochum, Cologne, Darmstadt, Frankfurt and Hamburg as well as from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the German Space Agency (DLR) and the German Office of Technology Assessment (TAB) of the German Parliament.

In his introduction, Prof. Horst Fischer, Director of the Institute for Humanitarian Law at Ruhr-Universität Bochum, stated the increasing relevance of the subject "weaponization of space", in particular after the September 11 attacks. This event strengthened the determination of the Bush Administration to develop ballistic missile defense systems. If it should become inevitable to modify the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, a cooperative solution of the problem might help to avoid an arms race in space.

Dr. Götz Neuneck, scientist at the Hamburg Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) and coordinator of the VDW study group, opened the first session Technical and Political Factors with his comments on Current Missile Defense Development. He described the renewed efforts of the Bush Administration to develop and deploy a multi-tier ballisic missile defense (BMD) shield. He analyzed the FY2002 budget and described the "Alaska option", which consists of five silos for ABM interceptors and an X-Band-Radar in Alaska to be deployed by 2004. Furthermore, the Bush team annulled the four criteria that the Clinton administration used to assess anti-missile deployment: threat, feasibility, costs and implications for arms control. Despite the fact that the efficacy of the new BMD architecture has not yet been proven, they now favour a "capability driven model" instead of a "threat driven model". The proposed BMD system could also be used for anti-satellite (ASAT) missions in low earth orbits.

Dieter Engels, astronomer from the university of Hamburg, talked about Civilian Space Flight And Its Dual-Use Potential. He argued that the new SAR-Lupe radar satellite is the German door-opener to military space flight. The German Defense Ministry ordered 4-6 of these new radar surveillance satellites, which are scheduled for deployment in 2005. The systems will probably cost 300-400 million Euro and have a resolution of 2-3 meters. Once deployed, the European Union will have three surveillance systems that can be used in the framework of the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP): the optical Helios I (1995) and Helios II (2002) systems and the radar satellite SAR-Lupe (2005). When satellite navigation systems such as Galileo are added, the distinction between civilian and military space systems becomes more and more blurred. In the following controversial discussion, members of the Foreign Ministry emphasized that Europe should narrow the technological gap between the US and the EU.

In the next presentation, Dr. Götz Neuneck gave a historical and technical overview of the Militarization of Space and Arms Control. He discussed the various approaches to restrict or prohibit these activities. He argued that the international community should place highest priority on the prevention of an arms race in space, because it is costly and dangerous and could induce new destabilizing situations and misunderstandings.

In his talk on Arms Control in Space and the Bush Administration, Dr. Bernd Kubbig (Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, PRIF) stressed the fact that the US President now redeems his central promise of his election campaign, namely to deploy a workable missile defense. When discussing this issues, however, it should be taken into account that the United States displays considerably more transparency on its military space program than Russia or China. The speaker called for a multilateral space policy which includes China and Russia. He warned against US unilateralism and proposed to strengthen those forces in the US that have an interest in preventing a new arms race in space, e.g. some Democrats or the civilian space industry. Unfortunately, September 11th caused a push for missile programs.

In the second session on Political and Legal Factors in Space Militarization, Dr. Kai-Uwe Schrogl from the German Space Agency (DLR, Köln) focused on the mandate and problems of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS) in Vienna. He supported the view that UNCOPUOS should not be overburdened with the problem of space weapons. In principle, the UNCOPUOS mandate allows the discussion of military aspects of space flight, and China has now suggested to do so. In another move, Russia proposes to negotiate an "Outer Space Convention" to include and carry on all existing space treaties. The speaker argued that to include military matters on the UNCOPUOS agenda would paralyze this forum. Therefore, this topic should remain with the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva.

Dr. Marietta Benkö (Cologne University), who is an adviser to the German UNCOPUOS delegation, was quite sceptical about the likelihood of success in multilateral UNCOPUOS or PAROS negotiations. Her experience shows that many good ideas and proposals for the restriction of dangerous activities never made it on the agenda of these fora.

Rüdiger Lüdeking (Head of the Department for Nuclear Arms Control and Non-Proliferation at the Foreign Ministry) gave a short overview over the work done and the problems encountered at the CD in Geneva. Since Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), missile defense has always been a topic at this multilateral forum. Obviously, there is a need to prevent a new arms race in outer space, but the speaker was sceptical about the chances for quick success of a new space weapons control agreement.

In the third session on Proposals for Arms Control in Space, Dr. Jürgen Scheffran (Chair of the INESAP project "Moving Beyond Missile Defense") presented the history and contents of the Proposed Treaty on the Limitation of the Military Use of Outer Space (Göttingen Treaty) from 1984. He thinks that this proposal could be a "door opener" for a new regime to prohibit the weaponization of space. Referring to UN Resolution 38/70 from December 15, 1983, which called for an "outer space without weapons", the speaker pleaded for additional confidence building measures and a "code of conduct" for space. Furthermore, effective verification matters should be worked out.

The final discussion focused on the implementation and feasibility of rules prohibiting military activities in space. The twenty participants agreed that the prevention of the weaponization of space should have high priority, and that a follow-up meeting should be held with international participation.

Götz Neuneck is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik) at the University of Hamburg, Germany. His current work focuses on missile defense, arms control and new military technologies. ISFH, Falkenstein 1, 22587 Hamburg, neuneck@public.uni-hamburg.de.