1. This study is directed by He Yingbo. M.V. Ramana generously gave the author some helpful suggestions to improve this paper during 11th Summer Symposium in Shanghai, July 28- August 8, 1999
2. Bruce G. Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War, The Brookings Institution,1993, p.270
3. Taken from http://210.79.226.9:81/report/s-weapon/missle/bgm-109-1.htm
4. DSMAC system in tomahawk provides inertial guidance system with updated guidance data to improve guidance performance. It can not independently fulfil the terminal guidance task.
5. For more detailed information on the development of the Tomahawk cruise missile, see "Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems", 1994, USA: Offensive Weapons.
6. Paul Rogers, "Guide to Nuclear Weapons", New York, Bradford Peace Studies Papers: New Series No. 2. Page 11.
7. "The Research and Development of EPWs in U.S.", JIA Hao and FENG Xiaohui, 1993.
8. See"The Future of Land-based Strategic Missiles", part V, chapter 11, Art Hobson, Survivability of superhard silos, page 274.
9. Its damage overpressure is a few hundred megapascal.
10. In this sense, the results are conservative.
11. There are many experimental formulas which can be used to estimate overpressure in conventional explosion, and their results agree with each other quit well. We choose this one from Jürgen Altmann"SDI for Europe?" Frankfurt 1998, pages 37-38
12. See "SDI for Europe? ", Jürgen Altmann, page 38; "The Future of Land-based Strategic Missiles ", Part V Chapter 11, Survivability of superhard silos, page 267; "Minuteman ICBM", ZHANG Zongmei, page 447; and "the Survivability of Land-based Strategic Ballistic Missiles", QIN Zhigao, page 30.
13. In the case of N warheads attacking the same target, the survival probability is statistically correct by formula 3. But the effects are not independent. Because a subsequent warhead approaches to its target through the blast and dust of the foregoing warheads' explosion, it decreases the accuracy and reliability of the later warhead. This phenomenon is known as "fratricide". We ignore it in our calculation.
14. Although the mobile systems are very vunerable according to our calculation, the positioning error is the most important factor that determines kill possibility of conventional weapons.