International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation

Peace Prevention in Kosovo

Western Values and the Quest for Dominance

Selected comments by JanØberg

Ignored warnings and failed opportunities of 1992

"The present state of economic, social and political affairs in Kosovo merits wide, urgent and carefully considered international attention and immediate humanitarian aid. It is a fragile calm we see today in Kosovo. There is still a political time and space for preventive diplomacy. The conflict holds very powerful and destructive potentials and will not go away. It will explode if nothing is done very soon."

"This report presents a series of conflict-mitigation ideas such as the establishment of various types of third-party mediation commissions working at the same time; a humanitarian presence; a human rights watch and international `adoption' of Kosovo; normalization of everyday life and demilitarization; UN peacekeeping; a trusteeship-like process, and some kind of condominium."

"The international community bears responsibility for not stimulating or using military actions but, instead, helping identify peaceful solutions with peaceful means before it is too late."

"It must be expected that the present international political, economic, scientific and cultural isolation of Serbia, signifying a much too simplistic good guys^__bad guy image in this extremely complex conflict, increasingly locks the Serbs into a "wounded lion" psychological mood."

"Initiatives by the international community such as a military action or the recognition of Kosovo as an independent state would almost certainly lead to a hard-line, desperate reaction and open a new front towards the Balkans."

"The present situation in Kosovo is so tense that very little will be needed to ignite a catastrophic chain of events."

"Taking into account the inescapable fact that in former Yugoslavia everything is related to everything else, there is no chance that a large international military action could avoid devastating consequences: not only in terms of death and destruction but also in terms of political repercussions throughout the system, i.e., in Kosovo, too."

From: Preventing War in Kosovo, TFF-Report of 1992.

What Rambouillet was about

"What happens now in Rambouillet has little to do with creating peace for the suffering citizens in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo/a. [...] If peace in Kosovo or the wider Balkans had been the real aim, we would have witnessed a completely different approach leading up to Rambouillet. We come closer to the truth about Rambouillet if we use words such as globalisation, strategic expansion, Caspian oil, Greater NATO, containment policy and imperialism disguised as conflict-management and peace-making."

"If peace was their profession, the governments of the international community would - around 1992 - have put enough diplomatic and other civilian pressure on the parties to begin a dialogue, not negotiations. It would have provided 5-10 different secluded meeting places for Albanians, Serbs and other peoples ^__NGOs, teachers, intellectuals, journalists, doctors etc.^__ to explore their problems and possible solutions. In short, an international brainstorm to produce creative ideas for later elaboration at a complex negotiation process that would take at least a year."

"Furthermore, any peace-related activity would have looked at the basic problems in Kosovo which are: deep poverty, overall economic crisis, corruption, lack of human trust, manifest human alienation, miserable schools, miserable transport, miserable health facilities, miserable media, miserable politics^__everywhere."

"So, what is really going on in Rambouillet? Rambouillet is a magnificent cover-up for the tremendous lack of advance analysis, early warning, early action and preventive diplomacy. But there is more:

1. The international community wants us to believe that its true mission is peace^__that it is a civilising force in regions where primitive people fight atavistic conflicts. But Rambouillet is, however, nothing but gunboat diplomacy and interventionism with other means.

2. It wants to present NATO as the new world peacekeeper and marginalizes the United Nations^__which, by the way, is the only organization with an accumulated experience in peace-keeping, peace-making and peace-building and which could do it much better than NATO if given the necessary resources and political legitimacy."

3. "Through Rambouillet, NATO will expand. NATO country troops are already positioned in Bosnia, Hungary, Italy, the Adriatic and Macedonia, the latter having virtually no choice and a new inexperienced government. If Macedonia cannot formally get into NATO as it wants, it can lie down and let NATO into Macedonia. Besides direct, formal NATO expansion, we see an indirect one-making the alliance `the indispensable protector' in war zones and grow its roots over the years: bases, infrastructure, equipment sales, training, intelligence, influence.

4. By stationing up to 30.000 NATO ground troops in Kosovo, NATO will not only expand. With US/NATO influence in Turkey, Greece, Georgia (and Azerbaijan?) and in Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, Hungary, Macedonia and Serbia, the goal of connecting NATO West and NATO East becomes more reachable, leading in the longer perspective to more control with the `devilish triangle' of the Balkans, Middle East and the Caucasus - the end stations of which are a) permanent containment of Russia and b) access to the oil in the Caspian Sea region. Kosovo is nothing but a pawn in that game. Control over it and over Serbia proper is much more important than peace in it.

5. And where did the figure 30.000 ground troops come from? 5.000-10.000 robust peacekeepers would be enough to keep Serbian police and Albanian armed peasants separated and monitor a ceasefire. The KLA is not exactly a formidable force for NATO. A reasonable hypothesis is that 30.000 is what it may take to de facto terminate Yugoslavia's status as a sovereign state. Incrementalism being a Western politico-military specialty, some of these troops may later be available for deployment as "peacekeepers" in e.g. Voivodina, Sandzak or elsewhere to control Serbia, i.e. when the self-destructive policies of the Markovic/Milosevic leadership hits those areas^__which is exactly what the West needs.

6. Kosovo's quagmire can be exploited also to "permit" the international community to disregard international law with (false) reference to high human values and norms. Unfortunately for that argument, the following must be remembered: a) if the term `ethnic cleansing' is to be used, it has been committed by both Albanians and Serbs over the last 20 years when no international intervention took place, b) a genocide has not taken place and the killings is so far much smaller than other conflicts such as Algeria or Eritrea-Ethiopia; c) Yugoslavia is a legitimate, sovereign state recognised by the international community with Kosovo inside it, d) it has not committed aggression against any neighbouring state, rather e) it is being threatened by neighbouring Albania as a KLA base and by Macedonia as a NATO base. Irrespective of what one may think of President Milosevic or other Yugoslav leaders, these are indisputable facts conveniently forgotten by interventionists on the right as well as on the left."

From: Rambouillet - Imperialism in Disguise, TFF PressInfo 55, February 16, 1999

If you don't sign you get air-strikes

"The Plan being discussed at Rambouillet is a formalistic, legal document. Its provisions may be needed, but it doesn't contain any ideas on how to make peace among the citizens who are to live with it when implemented. Their voice is not heard, their needs are not dealt with in the Plan. Most of the delegates in Rambouillet are not representative of the citizens. The "mediators" have no professional education as mediators. The idea that Kosovo's problems can be solved in two weeks is absurd. Rambouillet militates against all we know about human psychology and trust-building."

The message to Belgrade from the Contact Group and NATO is: "If you sign, you'll get NATO ground troops. If you don't sign you'll get air-strikes and NATO ground troops!"

From: Rambouillet - A Process Analysis, TFF PressInfo 56, February 21, 1999

No country would accept that

"Read the so-called Kosovo Peace Agreement being discussed these very hours in Paris and you are in for a few surprises ... I do not think that any recognised, sovereign state would accept all the civilian provisions and the military implementation on its territory of a plan like this. No state likes to receive "sign or be bombed" ultimatums ^__ particularly not when the said plan implies the de facto end of its status as a sovereign state with territorial integrity."

"Chapter 7, the Military Implementation of the Agreement, is most interesting. [...] Did you know, for instance, that the Agreement does not mention the word KLA? That it makes NATO the highest military authority on that territory of sovereign Yugoslavia? That FRY is barred from defining its border defence, and that KLA's demilitarisation is not defined in the agreement?

From: Read the Civilian Kosovo Agreement!, TFF PressInfo 57, March 17, 1999.

Preventing peace

"The military provisions in the Kosovo Agreement on the table in Paris have nothing to do with peacekeeping. Neither the civilian nor the military provisions will help bring about peace among Serbs and Albanians. It will further antagonize the 10 million citizens of Yugoslavia and the international community. There is simply nothing in it for the Yugoslavs and that's why I am deeply afraid that we are likely to see something very bad happen very soon. This whole affair has nothing to do with violence prevention, the appropriate term would be: peace-prevention."

"I have studied the early versions of the Agreement and the version of February 23. The document has undergone remarkable changes over time. My hypothesis is simple: this document has been adapted to be acceptable to the Albanian delegates to such an extent that the Yugoslav side^__ ready to accept the political parts at an earlier stage^__now find the changed document unacceptable both in terms of political and military aspects. Why this change? Because worst case for the international community would be Yugoslavia saying yes and the Albanians saying no."

"As you will see below, the text gives plenty of arguments for FRY President Milosevic to say no thanks, and for Yugoslavia to mobilize and feel threatened, humiliated, isolated and misunderstood. It will weld together everybody in Yugoslavia behind President Milosevic policies^__ which is the opposite of what the international community says it wants."

From: Read the Military Kosovo Agreement!, TFF PressInfo 58, March 18, 1999.

Re-writing history

"Western leaders are busy re-writing history to justify their Balkan bombing blunder. The change in information, rhetoric and explanations since the bombings started on March 24 is literally mind-boggling. Most likely they fear they have opened a very dark chapter in history and may be losing the plot. One way to make failure look like success is to construct a powerful media reality and de-construct real reality. That's the essence of media warfare and that's what happens now,"

"For years, I would say, Kosovo has been a police state. The only response Belgrade had to the legitimate Albanian grievances was to step up police repression. I have no doubts about the fact that there were gross, systematic violations of political, economic, cultural and other human rights."

"Be this as it may, the truth is that there was no war, no mass killings, no systematic ethnic cleansing, no genocide. Many Albanians left because of the repression but also because of the misery, the utter poverty and lack of future opportunities for themselves and their children. Serbs, too, left for such reasons and not^__ as they sometimes claim^__because they were victims of an Albanian genocide plan."

"It seems more probable to me that people run away for three reasons, not one: a) because of ethnic cleansing by Serb/Yugoslavs who feel that the ongoing destruction of Yugoslavia is the result of Albanian policy, b) because of the war between Yugoslav and KLA forces, and c) because of NATO's bombs which repeatedly also happens to hit civilian targets."

From: Covering Up NATO's Balkan Bombing Blunder, TFF PressInfo 61, April 14, 1999

Information War

"Most people around the world probably think that war and media are separate. When there is a war, the media tell us about it as objectively as they can under the often difficult circumstances. But in today's information society, every war is two wars: that on the ground and that in the media. Weapons communicate and communication is a weapon."

"Psychological operations (PSYOP) are operations planned to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behaviour of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals. PSYOP are a vital part of the broad range of US political, military, economic, and informational activities."

"When a black-and-white image of the parties has been established, media promote the view that there is a `good' violence combating an `evil' violence. The West's moral justification was that, over one year, 2000 people had been killed, 250.000 people displaced and that 45 people were killed in Racak. After three weeks of bombing, at least 350 civilians have been killed, an additional 500.000 have fled and NATO remains `determined' to reduce the welfare of 8-10 million Yugoslavia citizens for years."

From: The Information War About Kosovo, TFF PressInfo 62, April 15, 1999

Destructive culture

"I watch the heavy bombs and cruise missiles fall at night - `successfully' according to NATO's spokesmen a few hours later. I hear the roaring thunder of the explosions. I feel the shaking of the building and ground. I note sirens at any time of the day and the night, NATO permits no one to sleep for long. I feel the rage inside, the utter meaninglessness, my own powerlessness and humiliation in the face of mighty high-tech destruction and I think, `this is my culture, it is my political leaders who do or support this.' I know now how true it is that one has to be there to sense it and I experience how much stop working when we are without electricity - water pumps, cookers, street lights, computers, phones. There is only one word for what I feel: I am ashamed of the culture that does this."

"I walk around Belgrade and Novi Sad to see the surreal landscapes of destroyed buildings, bridges, ministries, police stations, hotels, radio-and TV stations, apartment houses, schools and embassies. The oil refinery in Novi Sad is still burning, three weeks after the hit. What was once big trees are now black, charred stumps. I know it is different, but it reminds me of images of Hiroshima."

From: Belgrade Under the Bombs - Report from a visit, TFF PressInfo No. 68, June 1, 1999.

Costs and damages

"The Kosovo ^__ or independent republic of Kosova ^__ we wanted to preserve is demolished; the rest of Yugoslavia partly in ruins. The immediate direct material costs range between US $ 50 and 150 bn, the indirect and long-term costs may be several times bigger. No one knows the costs of the bombing ^__33.000 sorties by 1100 planes, aircraft carriers, bombs, missiles, ammunition, surveillance, international coordination, fuel, supplies, wages, insurance, social benefits, transport, etc ^__ but if we estimate it at US $ 500 million per day, we come close to US $ 40 bn. The region now faces a huge environmental destruction, the Danube in particularly affected. The US has carried out most of the destruction, the EU will be footing the bill for reconstruction ^__ a tremendous burden on the EU."

A new Cold War approaching

"And there is a larger framework. The Ukrainian parliament has voted unanimously to revert the country to its former nuclear status. On April 30, a meeting of the Russian National Security Council approved the modernisation of all strategic and tactical nuclear warheads. It decided to develop strategic low-yield nuclear missiles capable of pin-point strikes anywhere in the world. The defence ministry authorised a change in nuclear doctrine. Thus Russians feel humiliated through the 1990s, but go along with most US/Western demands because of its frail leadership, its economic weakness ^__ it can hardly pay for its own troops to be deployed in Kosovo for years ahead ^__ and its dependence on the West. And in Beijing, the bombing of the Chinese Belgrade embassy has resulted in a shift away from the no-first-strike principle. Add the spy accusation, human rights policies and WTO negotiations and we begin to see the contours of a new Cold War. Russia, China and India ^__ and others ^__ have learnt not to trust the stated peaceful aims of the West. Many countries with secessionist minorities are likely to anxiously wonder when they will get the treatment Yugoslavia did."

From: The Horrendous Price of G8 Peace, PressInfo No. 69, June 9, 1999

War against civilians

"Perhaps the biggest lie in all this was the statement that `we are not at war with the Yugoslav people.' But NATO destroyed 300 factories and refineries, 190 educational establishments, 20 hospitals, 30 clinics, 60 bridges, 5 airports; it killed at least 2,000 civilians and wounded 6,000 and many will die and suffer because of the health infrastructure destruction. To this you may add the sanctions since 1991 and the burden of more than 700.000 refugees from other republics and now from Kosovo. Only 12-15 tanks of 300 main battle tanks and some planes were destroyed, the rest seem to have been dummies!"

Militarized conflict-management

"After the Kosovo crisis nobody can doubt that there is always unlimited supply of funds and personnel for military affairs, whereas the much cheaper early violence-preventive diplomacy, peaceful humanitarian intervention and postwar civilian peacekeeping consistently lack resources. The UN, OSCE and NGOs are marginalized in the process ^__ a rapid slide toward militarized conflict management and interventionism. This is a deliberate, moral choice made by the international `community'."

Supporting `terrorists'.

"The US and the West has no qualms by being allied with what the US envoy, Robert Gelbard, in early 1998 called a terrorist organisation, namely the KLA or UCK. It has built its military capacity on weapons, ammunition and training supplied by various Western sources; it has been given political legitimacy in Rambouillet through the embrace of the US and UK; it has served as NATO's ally on the ground during the bombardments."

From: Some Ethical Aspects on NATO's Intervention in Kosovo, Part A. TFF PressInfo 73, July 14, 1999

Expansionist Western culture

"I believe there were overlooked or suppressed dimensions such as collective psychology, deep cultural codes and domain Western expansionist/missionary values at work in the West's handling of Kosovo, and I think we do wise to discuss them. For instance, does the US-led West in fact hide a latent, deep-seated authoritarian ideology that seeks world dominance while pretending to create global democracy, partnership and multiculturalism?"

"NATO invaded another country, committed aggression and violated international law. It used indiscriminate weapons. It wanted to bring an `evil' nation down on its knees. The West accused Yugoslavia for doing what it did itself, e.g. killing innocent civilians, committing aggression, creating ethnically clean(er) units, sidelining democracy, using disproportionate and overwhelming military power, having `evil' plans (CIA getting rid of disobedient leaders), having a firm grip on media, etc."

"A minimum of historical consciousness tells us that ethnic cleansing is not something invented in the Balkans, but an integral part of Western behaviour in other cultures throughout history, not the least against the Indian indigenous people in the United States."

Concludes Jan Øberg ^__ "some of us have been around in ex-Yugoslavia for too long a time to believe that democracies are inherently peaceful or moral. Look at this century and how it ends! We have more education, more information, more military power, more violence ^__ and more democracy and shrinking wisdom. Politics and ethics, as well as technology and culture have divorced. I am convinced that Kosovo was not a minor event in contemporary history, that it is quite likely to be a turning point for worse things to come ^__ an evidence that we have learnt absolutely nothing from this century."

From: NATO's Psychological Projection, TFF Info No. 75, July 30,1999